Issam Fares Center for Lebanon organized a conference at its headquarter in Sin El Fil about the horizons of democracy in the Arab World after Egypt with the participation of Former Minister and former president of the Phalange Party Karim Pakradoni and the head of the Middle East Center for Regional and Strategic Studies in Cairo Dr. Mustafa Al Labad.
After the introduction of the director of the Center Ambassador Abdullah Bou Habib and the chief consultant Raghid AL Solh, Mr. Pakradoni indicated that the Arab World is on the verge of the spring of democracy and that the Egyptian revolution succeeded but it did not reach its conclusion yet. Egypt will stay in the heart of the storm since the United States and Israel are not comfortable with the changes.
The main success of the Egyptian uprising and all the revolutions in the Arab World is the elimination of the everlasting and hereditary character of the presidential terms, which was the principal spark of the Egyptian uprising. He noted 5 achievements of the revolution of the Egyptian youth. The first one is that the revolution has no leader or arms and it was able to topple a dictatorship used to repression, through peaceful demonstrations away from violence and force.
Second, the revolution showed that no corrupt and despotic regime is immune, no matter the level of oppression it uses and the foreign support backing it. It was also evident that the United States are quick to abandon their allies to protect their interest. The third achievement is the spread of the protests and demonstrations to the other Arab countries, in spite of the special situation in each country. The fourth accomplishment is that the Egyptian revolution woke up all the Arab populations and broke the fear complex in front of all kinds of oppression and tyranny. They started demanding the respect of human rights, freedom, multiparty, social equity and the regain of national dignity. The fifth achievement regards the change that will touch the foreign relations of Egypt.
The external impact of this revolution is lifting the Gaza blockade and opening the Rafah crossing and reviewing Egypt’s relations with the Arab countries, namely Syria. He expected that the new Egyptian regime will have a second look at the policy towards Lebanon which was limited during the ousted president Hussni Mubarak’s reign to taking care of the Sunnis or rather trying to divide them. The new Egyptian role will include the entire Lebanese components; in parallel, Egypt will reclaim its vital influence in the Arab World.
He feared a possible conflict between the revolution camp and the military regarding reforms and managing the transitional period. Furthermore, he ruled out the Muslim Brothers attempts to infiltrate the new system in order to establish an Islamic rule. He concluded by stating that the Arab spring still holds many dangers and changes. The guarantee of its success is the constant vigilance and readiness of the Egyptian street.
On his part, AL Labad considered that the old regime insulted the Egyptian population and minimized Egypt’s role in the region. The revolution was not launched under one umbrella, one ideology and one vision of what will come next. He indicated that the achieved objective was toppling the President who held 73% of the powers. However, the structure of the regime is still in place and the Prime Minister appointed by the ousted President is still running the transitional government. In addition, the state apparatus is still the same and amending the constitution is not enough without guaranteeing the right to form political parties and organize transparent and honest elections.
Regarding the role of the Muslim Brothers in the coming stage, he indicated that Mubarak’s regime was justifying its existence to the international community through facing the Muslim Brothers internally and Iran regionally, but its policies led to strengthen the Brothers and Iran. He considered that the chance of their rise to power directly in the next 5 year is unlikely, indicating that they will participate in the power through alliances they will form in the next stage. After organizing the domestic situation, Egypt will go back to play a regional role, not under the American cover but without confrontation with the United States. Cairo will not cancel the Camp David Accords now and Egypt will not constitute a strategic point for Israel.
Regarding the Egyptian role in Lebanon, he considered that Egypt’s bias towards a certain sect and a certain group did not reflect the country’s interests and history. Its relations in Lebanon cannot be limited to one religious group. The Egyptian history is full of names from all the Lebanese sects, whether Christians, Sunnis or Shiites. Moreover, the Egyptian relation with the Sunnis cannot be restricted to one family and one bank account; therefore, it is likely that the Egyptian policy towards Lebanon will be balanced in the future.
Concerning the relationship with Syria, he asserted that history and geography lessons proved that Egypt cannot play a role in the Levant without Syria, suggesting a strong likelihood of returning to the strategic alliance between the two countries. He mentioned that the return of the Arab figure to the regional formula requires the revival of the Egyptian-Syrian-Saudi understanding while Egypt is the most capable country of fighting the sectarian fire in the region.
Regarding a question about the possible spreading of the protests to the Gulf countries, AL Labad considered that with the exception of the sectarian division in Bahrain which might deteriorate and lead the Kingdom into a regional conflict, the other Gulf countries satisfy their population with a part of the abundant wealth compared to the number of people and that contributes to lessen the discomfort and prevents the spread of the fever to these countries.